Fear Porn not working I guess

Indeed, but do quit watching the "Fake News"

Well, we got to Election Day without a nuke being dropped on us…

We voted (some of us) A LOT did not vote. Lots of cheating and vote fraud still going on in my estimation.

And the “RED WAVE” did not hit us. Not surprised. People are still not motivated to vote in an “off” year.

Dr Norton at Auburn wrote a good piece back in August. I am just now posting part of it. We still need to be aware of the fragility of our “life systems” President Biden’s insanity at worshiping at the foot of the green new deal monster, closing a Canadian pipeline, stopping drilling, stopping fracking has us paying 4-8 dollars a gallon at the car gas pump. Think diesel is cheap? Realize we live on the American truckers bringing goods and foods to our doors. North-east USA at risk because of fuel oil shortages? I saw an article today that airline tickets are 47% higher today compared to pre covid.

But back in August 2022, Dr Norton at Auburn wrote a solid piece. We need to read it again and realize he is right. I shortened it to allow for a quick read. Keep this in mind as you finish the left over food from Thanksgiving. It may not always be this easy to fill your cabinet.

Oh and Thank the Lord Central Texas was blessed with two inches of rain last night!

here it is..

Food and War Report‌

Week Ending 19 August 2022

Editor Note: Opinion pieces are included for informational purposes only. No endorsement of their conclusions is offered or implied.

Comment

Item 1: Water. Water is a strategic issue of growing importance. Many parts of the world are experiencing drought this year. A thorough strategic view, that is an inventory of global water resources as a measure of the potential for future conflict is needed. Within the U.S. a national security inventory of water is also needed. Water shortages in the Western U.S. are accelerating, far faster than predicted by many. Water = agriculture in the Western U.S., particularly California. Agriculture

= Food.

Lake Meade is the proverbial canary in the West’s coal mine. Indications are that water levels will continue to decline. That will affect power and water. The blow back is going to hit the Western U.S. and California agriculture in particular very soon. With adequate water, California could provide large portions of the U.S. food

supply it. Without it, California will decrease agricultural output, declining proportionally at the rate of the drought, which currently shows no signs of abatement or reversal. This explains the governmental mandated cutbacks on water. Food and Agriculture writ large have never been looked upon as national security assets. The default position for many governmental and business decision makers has been that the U.S. food supply will always be secure. COVID proved that wrong. Drought will prove it very wrong.

Item 2: Rice. Rice is one of the major grains consumed globally. China, India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh are the top four rice consuming nations. Combined, they consume over 312,640,000 metric tons annually. Behind rice comes wheat and corn for other parts of the world, particularly developed nations. All crops depend on rainfall, rice especially so. Rice grows in shallow water. The world in many places is currently experiencing drought, in some places, catastrophic levels.

If rice growing regions are affected by drought, global famine will surely follow. Other non-consumable crops also require rain. Some areas used for cotton in the

U.S. (e.g., Arizona) are also experiencing drought. Irrigation becomes necessary, but in dry regions irrigation of deep or surface aquifers causes problems with potable water. Irrigation used for non-consumable crops divert water resources that otherwise might be used for producing consumable crops. Complicating the picture, non-consumable crops may be more profitable on a per acre basis than consumable crops. Growers may be incentivized to turn away from consumable crops. That being said, humans also need fiber for clothing and manufactured projects. This is not a black and white issue – food vs. non-food. The tradeoffs are becoming more complex in parts of the U.S. and the globe. The farmer population in the U.S. is also growing closer to retirement. Starting a new farm is beyond the reach of many young Americans. Purchasing an existing farm isn’t much cheaper. The same is true in other parts of the world. Complexity layered upon complexity are creating new kinds of vulnerabilities. Rice is a growing globally significant strategic issue. If we lose it as a crop, much of the world will starve.

Item 3. Afghanistan. Both the humanitarian and security situation are rapidly deteriorating in Afghanistan. This bears close watching and has already generated quiet discussions on whether a return will be necessary at some point in the future. Yes, ISR can continue to be used to further insight, but does so at altitude. Bad guys are on the ground. Nothing serves HUMINT better than boots on the ground, but the American public, although very unhappy about the way the withdrawal was executed, have no stomach for sending our people back, even if only a few.

The opportunity for an ordered, but more protracted handover has been lost, never to be recovered. The Taliban are back making Afghanistan a nightmare nation and society for women and children, but an ideal training ground for terrorists, some of which, including al Qaeda want to again attack the United States.

Given the open Southern U.S. border, terrorists are likely to train in Afghanistan, exit and use the cartel controlled trafficking routes out of Mexico to enter the U.S. The Afghanistan and border crises are creating clouds that if ignored could combine to form another perfect storm. As a reminder, terrorists only have to be right once, while vigilance must be infallible and constant. We are not there.

Item 4. Military Recruiting. Military recruiting deficiencies continues to gather the attention of Food and War Report. The United States faces in its future major challenges, spanning from cyber to kinetic. The state of the economy and advanced military weapons development combined are causing strategic and tactical frictions because, 1) automated weapon systems are too expensive; 2) take too long to field and, 3) people can’t yet be replaced by autonomous systems on the battlefield, at least for the U.S.

The challenges we are and will face as a nation, both internally and externally are not going away. They are in fact growing worse. In some cases, much worse.

We need more people willing and as importantly, able to serve to meet those burgeoning challenges. Unfortunately, many of our nation’s people are not fit for service. Changes are going to be necessary if we are going to find real solutions. Real solutions mean national survival.

Cyber warriors for instance may have to become a different class of service member, particularly if the numbers possessing the requisite skills exceeds those that can actually pass a PT test. Obesity is a national security crisis growing larger (no pun intended) because it drains too many people from the national security and defense matrices. Solutions will have to be found rapidly because the China/Taiwan challenge is coming. Other parts of the world are also blowing up in conflict, including those being made far more unstable by humanitarian crisis. We have to be in those places, but can only do so if we are fit and well equipped enough to meet the challenges.

Global Security – Strategic Effects

Embracing Challenge

Source: https://cove.army.gov.au/article/embracing-challenge “Do you embrace challenge?‌

“That is not a question you may have been posed before. Undoubtedly, as an officer, warrant officer, non-commissioned officer or even a soldier, you have encountered a plethora of leadership tips, command strategies, personal reflection, or other guides for good leadership. Leadership theory and doctrine has evolved over the years, as civilian and military organisation's understanding of effective leadership has changed.”

“Embracing challenge for better leadership”

“It is safe to say that authoritarian or autocratic leadership is way out, even amongst military leaders. A major theme of Good Soldiering refers to ensuring our people are "self-aware, comfortable with feedback and self-correcting". This guidance about being comfortable with feedback may be hard to reconcile with certain preconceptions of military leadership. Ultimately, a commander must be responsible for their decisions and the associated risks. Even more, the performance of a team of people for which you are responsible reflects on your leadership, for better or worse. With so much at stake, it can be tempting to 'take the reins' and slide back into directive control, or authoritarian leadership.”

Analyst Note: The following article was published in the U.K. but authored by an American, who served in Afghanistan as a U.S. Army officer. It is one person’s view and offered here as a single indicator on how some individuals who previously served in the U.S might now view U.S. leadership, the military and its strategies and tactics used to pursue terrorists in Afghanistan. The rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan and the immediate takeover by the Taliban has no doubt caused anger, disappointment and a sense of wasted purpose, blood and treasure among the U.S. military and civilians that served there. We have no data to definitively state how widespread are the views expressed here among former or current military members. That is an Intelligence gap. Lack of trust in all levels of leadership (local to national) is now a growing problem in the U.S. and other nations. This promotes social and national instability. Current members of the U.S. military and U.S. government agencies are not immune to these concerns.

Our nation’s adversaries are gleefully and very openly projecting the message of a pending U.S. defeat, using the Afghanistan withdrawal as evidence of its pending arrival. It is a winning message in many parts of the globe. The audiences for these messaging campaigns on both ends of the spectrum will tend to believe in the direction in which they are philosophically, politically, and culturally primed. Even allied nations are quietly questioning the resilience of the U.S. as an ally in light of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Cascading political and therefore military effects continue to ripple domestically and globally. Afghanistan again houses al Qaeda. Regardless of their claims of no knowledge of the presence of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Taliban undoubtedly knew. This could mean that al Qaeda will continue to rebuild.

Food and War report remains neutral in expressing an opinion on whether the Afghanistan withdrawal was the right opinion. We certainly have an opinion and carry emotional Afghanistan baggage but must assiduously avoid allowing that color our analyses. In analysis, we continually endeavor to compartmentalize personal opinions and seek fact. We mention these matters here only as potential evidence for tipping points that have caused effects when they happened in the past and will continue to cause effects, when they happen in the future.

Security problems in Iraq are increasing to the point that U.S. troops are again quietly being deployed there. Syria has demanded that all U.S. troops (primarily Special Operations) leave immediately. Iran is pushing the envelope and will likely possess a functional nuclear weapon in the next two years. China has of course acted aggressively against Taiwan, increasing the potential for a major war. Russia invaded Ukraine, a sovereign nation and not “The Ukraine”, a former region of the

U.S.S.R as unfortunately some in the U.S. press again refer.

Some of these problems mentioned here may have been inevitable, regardless of whether we left Afghanistan or not, but like in all post action periods a very careful and candid, perhaps even painful review of all phases of the Afghanistan war is needed. Beyond that, the domestic and global effects of the withdrawal must be studied now, so that those negative can be countered before they cause more problems. The historians will eventually do that, but we as a nation don’t have the time to wait.

Military recruiting is rapidly nearing a crisis which if it continues means that a draft will at some point have to be considered. The implications of that are massive as a high percentage of Americans are physically or emotionally unfit for military service. We are not sufficiently prepared for a war with China if it comes. We are

not adequately prepared for much beyond what we are doing in our proxy war with Russia. National Security and Defense is very much at stake with what is happening internally and externally. What portion of these problems were borne from the Afghan withdrawal decision? We don’t know. What portion of these problems were borne from our decision to invade Afghanistan in the first place and then remain fighting based on the political decisions of multiple administrations? Again, we don’t know. It is imperative we find out the answers – and very quickly.

Opinion - America has lost its purpose

Killing terrorists is no substitute for strategy

Source: https://unherd.com/2022/08/the-false-triumph-of-al-zawahiris-death/

“Killing terrorists is no substitute for strategy”

“With Ayman al-Zawahiri dead, now is time for Washington to abandon the failed counterterrorism policies of the last two decades. Rather than vindicating that approach, as supporters of the Biden administration claim, the al-Qaeda leader’s assassination shows how little it has accomplished. This may well be America’s last chance to fundamentally reorient its foreign policy before the country suffers far more devastating losses than those it has inflicted on itself during the War on Terror.

On Wednesday, while pundits were still helping the White House congratulate itself for killing the 71-year-old terrorist leader, China responded to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan by launching a massive, four-day combined arms live fire exercise around the island. While the US broadcasts mixed signals about its commitment to defending Taiwan, Beijing has been absolutely clear that it is willing to go to war, and has now encircled the island in an unprecedented show of force.